‘Choices’ is the second recent instance in which I bump into Bayes: Probability and Likelihood when considering choices and making decision

(The first time it was about Corona Rapid Antigen Testing and how to explain a false positive result. That was easy.)

What still trips me up is the fact that I’m not sure if I understand the theorem in full. Here is my condensed version which I apply to the decision making process as described by Annie Duke:

Probability: How likely is it that an event will occur at all?

Likeliness / Likelihood: How probable is it that the event will occur and be relevant to me and my hypotheses? How probable is it that I overlooked something relevant (to me and my hypotheses)? In a similar situation in the past, what was the outcome? What is the risk?

In thinking – as opposed to calculating – we infer probability through likeliness/likelihood. There is a need to (de)/fin(e)d the right WEPs, I guess.